[Negotiator]

https://www.twitter.com/BN9195/status/1556809173244882944
Bonaaannn
@BN9195
Sydney
Joined Sep 2010

There's a fundamental split between Taiwan and the US on how to defend the island. Taiwanese think "if the island is so important to the US, then the US should defend it if China attacks. At worst I can surrender and China won't kill me. It's the US's loss"

Any political party that tries to push for compulsory military service and extend the time (it's 4 months now) to 1 or 2 years will not win elections. On the other hand, the US expects Taiwan to be armed to the teeth and fight to the last Taiwanese so the cost is high for China.

I'm dead fucking serious. That's most Taiwanese people's mindset. They think this is a US and Japan problem, not their problem. They're not going to risk their lives and property if there's an "invasion".

I already have enough trouble with getting my head around this strange One China Policy from 1948 (one country with two governments ? What the what ?) and now this !

What the heck are the Taiwanese for a kind of people ?!?!? The USA should defend them if the USA think Taiwan is so important ? I dont know if I should laugh or cry.

I mean, in an odd way this actually makes sense, sort of. But its impossible. It cannot ever happen. China has nuclear bombs and plenty rockets / ICBMs. I mean, sure, they estimate its "only" 350 bombs. About 20 times less than USA and Russia. But already enough to destroy all major cities of the USA and thus too many to risk a direct conflict. Its the same reason why the USA cannot attack Russia directly and has to use the ukrainians for doing so.

And honestly, are they not paying attention what is happening in Ukraine right now ? Thats what they are supposed to do, too, of course. Why dont they know that ?

This China vs Taiwan war will actually be very short and very funny, it seems.

[Skynet]

When China gets Taiwan, China will rule the planet. The US should sell them all demanded weapons like F-35 to deter the CCP.

[MistyTiger]

Taiwan is very democratic. In the past, the US backed Taiwan. It wasn't until Nixon that the US officially recognized China.

The US should stop playing with Taiwan and China. We do not want Russia to get involved and start aiming missiles at us. If we can delay WWIII for 20 years, then let's do that. We need to keep the peace.

[Skynet]

Taiwan is very democratic. In the past, the US backed Taiwan. It wasn't until Nixon that the US officially recognized China.

The US should stop playing with Taiwan and China. We do not want Russia to get involved and start aiming missiles at us. If we can delay WWIII for 20 years, then let's do that. We need to keep the peace.

The Axis Moscow-Teheran-Bejing will be in 20 Years stronger :-(

[Mike12]

The ROA Republic of America 2nd polity. Thats the two countries two governments policy. The Daehan Minguk is the ROK Republic of Korea and the ROA is the Daehan Minguk Miguk Republic of America. The Republic of America is a 2nd phase 2nd era 2nd republic of the Republic of America. People don't know they're in it. or its coming or something.

[Fasces]

US DoD is very frustrated with Taiwan. The government doesn't support the popular policies that the US recommends - enforcing conscription, implementing anti-corruption reforms, and professionalizing the army corps. The US wants to sell weapons that emphasize asymmetrical warfare in the event of a Chinese invasion, while Taiwan prefers flashy visible weapons it can use in parades and videos but that likely won't survive an initial conflict with China. Taiwanese routinely try to get out of military service, or half ass their service. The trainings have huge reported problems due to lack of skill level or professional officer corps (officers come in, do a couple years, and leave, with very few staying long-term, especially NCOs and other low-grade officers). The DoD has continually expressed for the past few years that Taiwan does not seem committed to its own defense.

Most notably, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all but name and has not been reined in by President Tsai Ing-wen. Instead, the ministry is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People’s Liberation Army. Moreover, the ministry has the audacity to tell American audiences that this dramatic shift is fully congruent with an asymmetric posture.

Unfortunately, the Overall Defense Concept was more popular with American analysts and officials than it was with currently serving Taiwanese generals and admirals. Driven by personal animosity and the fact that true asymmetry undercuts the rationale for pursuing high-profile, high-prestige, and high-cost weapons, these military leaders and civilian enablers purged the Overall Defense Concept as soon as Lee retired.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/taiwa ... the-rails/

Among the most pressing concerns are poor preparation and low morale among the roughly 80,000 Taiwanese who are conscripted each year and the nearly 2.2 million reservists.

Xiao Cheng-zhi, a 26-year-old from central Taiwan, said his four months of basic training that ended last year mainly involved sweeping leaves, moving spare tires and pulling weeds. Aside from some marksmanship training, he said, his classes were meaningless.

Mr. Xiao dismissed his cohorts as strawberry soldiers, a term used in Taiwan to describe young people raised by overprotective parents who bruise easily. While he said he is willing to serve, he doubted the island would stand much chance against China’s People’s Liberation Army.

In interviews, Taiwanese soldiers and reservists expressed concerns about training and readiness. One said he watched American war movies during training after running out of useful things to do. Another said he spent a lot of time reading and drawing, and that there wasn’t much to worry about anyway. Public opinion polls and interviews suggest many Taiwanese expect the U.S. to take charge if serious danger arises.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-mil ... 1635174187

The Taiwanese military is still organized around the strategies once required for its decades-long goal of retaking mainland China, rather than repelling a possible Chinese military invasion.

"Taiwanese senior military leaders are resistant to transforming into a defense-focused force instead of a power projection force," said Ivan Kanapathy, former National Security Council director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

The Taiwanese military, known as the Republic of China Armed Forces, is still focused on acquiring expensive heavy armor like tanks and big-ticket vessels and weapons required for launching a land invasion from the sea. Those offensive capabilities are easy targets for Chinese missiles launched from the mainland, and they aren't very useful in defending against a Chinese attack.

Taiwan's Ministry of Defense is staffed almost entirely by military officers, and the country lacks a well-developed security studies academic community. This means defense policy is shaped by career military officers whose perspectives have all been shaped by lifelong loyalty to the same institution, and there are few alternative information sources outside the military itself.

Before Taiwan's transition to democracy in the late 1980s, it was an authoritarian one-party state run by the KMT, and the military served as the KMT's muscle. As a result, distrust in Taiwan between politicians and the military lingers, preventing more proactive oversight of defense policies.

Due to that distrust, among other factors, many Taiwanese in the general public also do not see a military career "as a respectable career choice," says Drun.
Scandals and corruption have also plagued the Taiwanese armed forces, and it has struggled to recruit talent.

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/28/taiwan ... ion-threat

In a perfect world, China should respect Taiwan's right of self-determination. In our world, Taiwan's military prepardness does seem to be "get the US to save them".

Coupled with 1) Taiwan having to pass laws to prevent Taiwanese nationals from leaving Taiwan to work in China in the semiconductor industry (and other key industries) and 2) the US pursuing its own independent semi-conductor manufacturing policy the current CPC is convinced that simply waiting out this period of strategic insulation Taiwan has established for itself and maintaining the current status quo while continuing to grow economically, a peaceful reunification is possible as Taiwan does not seem committed to military resistance. That down the line, the KMT will win elections again, and as trade and movement between the mainland and island grow (as they did in the early 2000s), the palatableness idea of reunification grows with it. (Doubtful).

The things that could make this "eventual" peaceful reunification impossible, in the eyes of the CPC, is if China's economic development stalls long-term (no longer can offer economic motive to Taiwanese citizens); if the US or Taiwan pushes a red line; or if Taiwan declares independence.

[Rugoz]

In our world, Taiwan's military prepardness does seem to be "get the US to save them".

To be fair, without US help Taiwan has no chance whatsoever.

[Steve_American]

US DoD is very frustrated with Taiwan. The government doesn't support the popular policies that the US recommends - enforcing conscription, implementing anti-corruption reforms, and professionalizing the army corps. The US wants to sell weapons that emphasize asymmetrical warfare in the event of a Chinese invasion, while Taiwan prefers flashy visible weapons it can use in parades and videos but that likely won't survive an initial conflict with China. Taiwanese routinely try to get out of military service, or half ass their service. The trainings have huge reported problems due to lack of skill level or professional officer corps (officers come in, do a couple years, and leave, with very few staying long-term, especially NCOs and other low-grade officers). The DoD has continually expressed for the past few years that Taiwan does not seem committed to its own defense.


... snip 3 interesting quotes ...


In a perfect world, China should respect Taiwan's right of self-determination. In our world, Taiwan's military prepardness does seem to be "get the US to save them".

Coupled with 1) Taiwan having to pass laws to prevent Taiwanese nationals from leaving Taiwan to work in China in the semiconductor industry (and other key industries) and 2) the US pursuing its own independent semi-conductor manufacturing policy the current CPC is convinced that simply waiting out this period of strategic insulation Taiwan has established for itself and maintaining the current status quo while continuing to grow economically, a peaceful reunification is possible as Taiwan does not seem committed to military resistance. That down the line, the KMT will win elections again, and as trade and movement between the mainland and island grow (as they did in the early 2000s), the palatableness idea of reunification grows with it. (Doubtful).

The things that could make this "eventual" peaceful reunification impossible, in the eyes of the CPC, is if China's economic development stalls long-term (no longer can offer economic motive to Taiwanese citizens); if the US or Taiwan pushes a red line; or if Taiwan declares independence.

I didn't know all that.

I'm an amateur military affairs expert. I've read many books, etc.

That info changes my view. If they will not fight to defend themselves, then why should we defend them?
.

[Mike12]

[late]

Our policy is changing, and it's unlikely Biden or the Dipcorp know how it's going to play out.

Most of this will be done behind closed doors. If you want to know what's happening, follow Taiwan military news to see if they are modernising, and most of all, our fleet movements.

I find it hard to imagine we deliberately pissed off Xi without a plan, but stranger things have happened.