[ACuboConstructivist]

Do you believe the Tea Party is antiestablishment and a have a change of defeating The wall street "moderate republican" establishment which is pushing mass immigration?

[mikema63]

No, their an astroturfed organization that represents those self same interests.

[ACuboConstructivist]

Thanks for your input. do you see some potential in the conflicts/sparks between so called RINOs and so called Tea Party. I've seen tea Party candidates over throwing establishment candidates. I dont see other mass movement and populist groups like the Tea party which at least claim to be against the whole establishment except for occupy wall street.

[mikema63]

It will push moderates and independents away from the republicans and towards the democrats. Best case scenario (for me, a socialist) is that the Libertarians replace the GOP and we get a non religious socially liberal version of the republicans that aren't as totally insane on the environment. (mostly)

[ACuboConstructivist]

I think if democrats go full insane on immigration/diversity/gay pride identity politics in 2016, it will push out indepdent white middle class people...but the rrpublicans can't be wall street central they have to be main street to reel them in and only party i can see to do that as far is a tea party type thing. If some issues get out off the table and focus on jobs. The government shutdown was unpopular because it was over sown nonsenese debated over beaucrstized health care in a successful society. Now if they shut it down over mass immigration and joblessness they coukdve gotten people behind them. But if they are both devils, them fighting one another can only be a good thing for all groups.

[spodi]

I believe they are a failure just as their counter part on the left occupy. Two grassroots who had potential but were bought and sold. In the tea party's case if I remember correctly was a grassroots movement started by Ron Paul supporters. Thats when it was real. Fox News who never supported Ron Paul bought and sold the tea party and before you knew it Glenn Beck is doing a rally at the national mall and Rachel maddow is referring to Beck as a Teabagger. Republicans today may say their their part of the tea party movement but their statements are just as plastic as the "grassroots" of the movements current structure.

[Quantum]

Most conservatives here are regular liberal-conservatives. You should have tried your luck in the Paternalism & Corporatism thread, where you get a better response.

As for the question, I am not an identitarian, but I agree with Mike that the Tea Party are astroturfed organisation, but I guess much better than a real right-wing movement, no matter how annoying Tea Partiers are.

[nucklepunche]

I am a liberal conservative (in the political science sense of the term) who finds the Republican Party absolutely repulsive in the current moment. The reason why is it seems that the defining feature of the GOP today is not comprehensive political platform but identity politics with the fair share of emotional hyperbole thrown in.

The Democratic Party by contrast is sort of a coalition of interest groups whose primary aims all seem to be greater government largesse. Really the whole fight for the "rights" of minorities, gays, women etc. is not so much about freeing them from oppression as it is making sure each of these groups get government benefits, hence gay marriage being a major priority of the Democrats, because marriage brings government benefits.

The Republicans by contrast cannot figure out what they stand for. For instance there is a major divide in the party between those who want immigration restrictions and businessmen who want more cheap labor. Furthermore many Republican politicians will rail against Obamacare for cutting Medicare in front of senior citizens groups and then go before a think tank and talk about how much they love privatizing Medicare. The Republican Party meanwhile is locked in stife over foreign policy and social issues.

In essence I think 2016 is going to be the year the Republican Party either gets its act together or faces a tough loss and perhaps some time in the political wilderness. These things being said, I think a lot of the Tea Party phenomenon is simply a reaction by elderly, white, religious, middle class and upper middle class Americans to a changing world. I think there was a lot of astroturfing going on, but once the Tea Party started going after government programs businesspeople actually like you saw some of the funding dry up which is why you see a somewhat more moderate Republican field 2014 than you did in 2010.

Democrats seem to think that Republicans will simply die out and no longer exist, but I suspect the Republican Party will simply reorient itself to appeal more to younger voters. I see a resurgance of the sort of moderate Republicanism that is said to have died out a long time ago because I tend to take the long view on things, but I don't see this taking root until after 2020 or so. The simple reality is that political realignments happen every few decades.

In 1932 we saw a realigning election in which the Democratic Party abandoned its Jeffersonian small government roots and embraced moderate social democracy. The GOP became the opposing party in favor of less government than Democrats, however they still accepted the New Deal consensus that government regulation of the economy was necessary. This is why Eisenhower, Nixon and Ford were significantly more moderate than later Republicans.

There was a gradual realignment throughout the 1970s. In 1972 the Democratic Party officially embraced cultural liberalism under George McGovern, gradually abandoning its social democratic roots in favor of identity politics and agreement with the neo-liberal consensus (completed under Clinton). In 1980 the Republican Party officially embraced the mantra of low taxes, low regulation, big military, family values that continued until the present day.

I see another major generational political realignment coming up. I view political eras in terms of offense and defense. Essentially from 1932-1980 the left was on the offense in the sense that the goalposts generally moved leftward during this time and the right simply fought elections on the idea that the left went too far. From 1980 onward the right was on the offensive with the center-left simply presenting a moderate alternative to right-wingers who got too radical. If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders mounts a challenge to Clinton in 2016 I think you could see a reorientation of course.

Republicans will not feel the need to out radicalize each other by painting moderate Democrats as radical leftists and instead have an easy argument against authentic social democrats and return to their mid-20th century position of being the moderate sensible alternative to big government types run amok.