[B0ycey]

Well, if China really wants to invade Tiawan, then yes, it should already be building pipelines and RR lines. Is it? Peter is not telling me that it is. Nobody is saying that.

Of course, as of now it is the chips. But, they weren't making chips 20 years ago.
I have seen a few reports that the US wants to contain a rival=China. To do that it wants to keep the islands that ring it as Allies. These are Japan, Okinawa and other islands, then Taiwan, then the Philippines, then Borneo/Malaya and finally Indonesia.

I don't see why China has to go against that. Japan is doing fine (better than China for its people) as an American ally.

China and Japan can compete economically with the US, why do it militarily or navally?

This is especially true with climate change.
Now is the best time to cooperate on climate measures.
IMHO, if all humans don't join the cooperation agreement, then humans will be extinct.
.

To be honest Steve, I don't actually know what we are debating now. I don't think China is going to invade Taiwan unless there are external influences pushing for independence so we agree. Even the US isn't (officially) promoting independence either. China are working with the opposition of Taiwan and I guess they are happy to wait to see what happens here.

As for Japan, what are you saying here? That China want Japan? China have done no imperialist moves nor have they started any wars to assume that. I have no issue with Japan and the US allying in order to deter China's hypothetical imperial ambitions but that is different to Taiwan anyway. Taiwan is China. That's it. China want it back and are willing to allow the island autonomy. They are patient and will wait for a natural transition as long as the path of unification isn't hindered, which means that will keep the status quo as long as the West understand that and not try and change the outcome.

[Steve_American]

To be honest Steve, I don't actually know what we are debating now. I don't think China is going to invade Taiwan unless there are external influences pushing for independence so we agree. Even the US isn't (officially) promoting independence either. China are working with the opposition of Taiwan and I guess they are happy to wait to see what happens here.

As for Japan, what are you saying here? That China wants Japan? China have done no imperialist moves nor have they started any wars to assume that. I have no issue with Japan and the US allying in order to deter China's hypothetical imperial ambitions but that is different to Taiwan anyway. Taiwan is China. That's it. China want it back and are willing to allow the island autonomy. They are patient and will wait for a natural transition as long as the path of unification isn't hindered, which means that will keep the status quo as long as the West understand that and not try and change the outcome.

No, I don't have to accept that Taiwan is part of China.

There are a lot of nations that have split in history.

The US rebelled against England, for example.

China and Taiwan have been separated for 74 years now. I doubt they will be reunited before climate change gets terrible.

You know that I believe that drastic action on ACC is required now, And, if we don't act now, that a few tipping points will be tipped by 2030.

Guy McPherson points out that if one tipping point is tipped and it is really irreversible (and meets the definition that it keeps heating the planet for many decades), then that heating that we can't stop, will tip all the other tipping points as the planet keeps heating.

I said that China should ally with the US exactly like Japan has.

[B0ycey]

No, I don't have to accept that Taiwan is part of China.

There are a lot of nations that have split in history.

The US rebelled against England, for example.

China and Taiwan have been separated for 74 years now. I doubt they will be reunited before climate change gets terrible.

You know that I believe hat drastic action of ACC is required now, And, if we don't act now, that a few tipping points will be tipped by 2030.

Guy McPherson points out that if one tipping point is tipped and it is really irreversible (and meets the definition that it keeps heating the planet for many decades), then that heating that we can't stop, will tip all the other tipping points as the planet keeps heating.

I said that China should ally with the US exactly like Japan has.

I have no issue with China and the US working together on climate change or any other issue. In fact I support it and hope they do (or continue to do so). But China have their own geopolitical goals and the US will have to work with that or they don't. And if they don't, clearly China will work with other allies who will. But that is true with every nation, there is nothing special with China and the US here.

As for Taiwan, your opinion is noted, but it isn't the official opinion of the UN. Taiwan is part of China and only the semantics are debatable. Taiwan doesn't have a seat in the UN and most nations including the US recognises the CCP not the ROC as the legitimate government of China.

[skinster]

Yes.

[Steve_American]

Yes [the dollar is dead or dying].
https://www.you[==]tube.com/watch?v=EBN3gYc_vEg

Well, it has been over a month, almost 2 months, and the dollar is stronger than in late Sept.

So, no sign yet that the dollar is dying, let alone dead.

The reason is that every other currency has bigger problems than the US does.

I predict that, if the Repuds win in 2024 and do implement Plan 2025, then the dollar will die, because that plan calls for the end of the rule of law, which means that your money is not safe in US bonds, because dictators can just take them on a whim.

[Godstud]

China's GDP growth rate is 8.1% as of 2021. The Chinese economy grew by 6.3% year on year in the second quarter of 2023. Why do people stupidly assume they aren't doing well?

Western propaganda, that's why.

USA dollar is not dead. I hope the Republicans DO win, as they are better for business than Democrats. Republicans won't destroy USA, it'll be their society that does that.

[Crantag]

Guys like him make money selling crap...

It's a scare story, nothing more.

In 1973, when I was leaving Europe, I noticed my dollars bought less than when I arrived several months earlier. This has been going on for a long time, but the dollar doesn't always go down.

Eventually, the dollar will lose reserve status. But first a country has to replace us as the economic superpower. China and Russia are in serious trouble. Europe is entering a challenging transition period.

For a variety of reasons, but primarily because America will be less harmed by the coming crisis, the dollar will be even more secure as the reserve currency, at least for a while.

I largely agree with Peter Zeihan on this:

It won't be replaced by an equivalent system denominated in a new currency. There have been three distinct international monetary systems in the past 100 years. There was the Gold Standard. There was the Gold Exchange Standard. And there is the current system of floating exchange rates. This latter system came into being around the time you left Europe. It has in fact been typified by continuous inflation, as a matter of fact (among other things).

What is currently happening is a gradual proliferation of alternatives to the dollar (like bilateral trade agreements among other things).

[Crantag]

The seizure of Russian assets by the US in 2022 is going to be talked about by future historians as a critical turning point with respect to de-dollarization.

[Godstud]

@Crantag, No, it was a criminal act.

[Crantag]

@Crantag, No, it was a criminal act.

What was a criminal act? The seizing of Russian assets ($300 billion).

Whatever it was, it provides overwhelming impetus to countries to divest from the dollar. The trend was already underway but this made it into a necessity.

[Steve_American]

The seizure of Russian assets by the US in 2022 is going to be talked about by future historians as a critical turning point with respect to de-dollarization.

We can agree on this, at least.

I have said the seizure of euros from Cypriot banks about 2 decades ago, doomed the euro from replacing the dollar. The EU also doesn't create many bonds each year. And the bonds have default risk, while the dollar only has inflation risk. But, all fiat currencies have inflation risk.

[JohnRawls]

We can agree on this, at least.

I have said the seizure of euros from Cypriot banks about 2 decades ago, doomed the euro from replacing the dollar. The EU also doesn't create many bonds each year. And the bonds have default risk, while the dollar only has inflation risk. But, all fiat currencies have inflation risk.

The EURO doesn't care about replacing the dollar. We just trade and use it ourselves. There is and was no global conspiracy to replace the Dollar by the Euro.

This thread sometimes makes me wonder why people don't understand basic stuff on pofo. There is no global conspiracy on why people use the Dollar or the Euro or any of the other reserve currencies besides that:
1) They are stable
2) They are freely convertible
3) They are mostly free market regulated in its value
4) There is a lot of that currency around
5) There is an economy backing that currency

Anything beyond those 5 is just history at how good the currency is. And there are two outliers in all the world currencies that outperform anybody else in those 5 categories: Euro and Dollar. That is it.

Anybody jerking off to BRICS currency are lunatics:
1) Chinese money is heavily manipulated by the government, not freely convertible. There are significant capital controls in China on the RMB plus China regularly uses the exchange rate to boost trade since it needs that trade. Why would anybody use the RMB if they devalue the currency from time to time and don't allow to convert it?

2) India is even worse because it is manipulated, has way worse stability and basically a non-convertible currency outside India. Russia has like 50 Billion USD stuck in India in Indian currency because they traded oil and now don't know how to get it out of there.

3) Russia is a dumpster fire.

4) South Africa is a dumpster fire but for different reasons. (No it is not because of Racism but because you can't remove apartheid and include 90% of its population with 0 wealth in to economy without consequences)

5) Brazil? I have no clue about Brazilian currency but let me meme here about South American corruption and problems.

And this is just BRICs currencies without even considering anything else like politics, interests etc about this BRICS united currency that will never happen.

[Rancid]

The EURO doesn't care about replacing the dollar. We just trade and use it ourselves. There is and was no global conspiracy to replace the Dollar by the Euro.

This thread sometimes makes me wonder why people don't understand basic stuff on pofo. There is no global conspiracy on why people use the Dollar or the Euro or any of the other reserve currencies besides that:
1) They are stable
2) They are freely convertible
3) They are mostly free market regulated in its value
4) There is a lot of that currency around
5) There is an economy backing that currency

Anything beyond those 5 is just history at how good the currency is. And there are two outliers in all the world currencies that outperform anybody else in those 5 categories: Euro and Dollar. That is it.

Anybody jerking off to BRICS currency are lunatics:
1) Chinese money is heavily manipulated by the government, not freely convertible. There are significant capital controls in China on the RMB plus China regularly uses the exchange rate to boost trade since it needs that trade. Why would anybody use the RMB if they devalue the currency from time to time and don't allow to convert it?

2) India is even worse because it is manipulated, has way worse stability and basically a non-convertible currency outside India. Russia has like 50 Billion USD stuck in India in Indian currency because they traded oil and now don't know how to get it out of there.

3) Russia is a dumpster fire.

4) South Africa is a dumpster fire but for different reasons. (No it is not because of Racism but because you can't remove apartheid and include 90% of its population with 0 wealth in to economy without consequences)

5) Brazil? I have no clue about Brazilian currency but let me meme here about South American corruption and problems.

And this is just BRICs currencies without even considering anything else like politics, interests etc about this BRICS united currency that will never happen.

This x1000.

The BRICS thing is fucking laughable. BRICS comes up again and again every few years.

[Unthinking Majority]

This x1000.

The BRICS thing is fucking laughable. BRICS comes up again and again every few years.

Nobody's going to put their trust in a reserve currency from a poor developing country run by dictators and filled with financial schiesters who operate businesses there. Would you even open a bank account in China, India, or Russia? I wouldn't.

[Fasces]

Why not? Plenty of folks have one.

I have a bank account in the US, Spain, Belgium, China, South Africa, and Ecuador.

[Rancid]

Would you even open a bank account in China, India, or Russia?

I get your point, but to directly answer the question. No on Russia.

Maybe yes on China and India, but only if it made sense for some sort of business reason, but... to get to your underlying point. I would absolutely never convert my life savings to any of those currencies. WHich I think is the point you are getting at here.

[Unthinking Majority]

I get your point, but to directly answer the question. No on Russia.

Maybe yes on China and India, but only if it made sense for some sort of business reason, but... to get to your underlying point. I would absolutely never convert my life savings to any of those currencies. Which I think is the point you are getting at here.

Right. The US economy has been streamrolling for 150 years, it's trusted and stable with good rule of law to protect investors. China and India are pretty new to being economic powers, with shady business practices and corruption well beyond the US. As an analogy, I would bet on Coca-Cola over bitcoin if i'm going to park my money in a safe investment, meaning track record matters over the hot new thing. The point of a reserve currency is safety/trust and stability.

[Rancid]

Right. The US economy has been streamrolling for 150 years, it's trusted and stable with good rule of law to protect investors. China and India are pretty new to being economic powers, with shady business practices and corruption well beyond the US. As an analogy, I would bet on Coca-Cola over bitcoin if i'm going to park my money in a safe investment, meaning track record matters over the hot new thing. The point of a reserve currency is safety/trust and stability.

This is also evidenced by the fact that many of the wealthy from those two nations most certainly convert large quantities of their money into USD. Or assets that are valued in USD (like buying up homes in the US)

Does India have capital controls like China does? That's actually the biggest barrier for the RMB to become a true reserve currency. Capital controls make it a poor candidate.

[JohnRawls]

This is also evidenced by the fact that many of the wealthy from those two nations most certainly convert large quantities of their money into USD. Or assets that are valued in USD (like buying up homes in the US)

Does India have capital controls like China does? That's actually the biggest barrier for the RMB to become a true reserve currency. Capital controls make it a poor candidate.

India has far worse controls than China. Rupie is basically unconvertable. Russia has 50 billion or more stuck in India because they can't convert. Now imagine a regular company or person trying it on mass.

[wat0n]

Why not? Plenty of folks have one.

I have a bank account in the US, Spain, Belgium, China, South Africa, and Ecuador.

Where do you keep your life savings?