late wrote:That is a great question with a complicated answer.
It would require more work than I feel like to doing, but I can get you started. We are simply different from Europe. Our energy prices are lower, and our main trading partners are Mexico and Canada. Which means we are less dependent on exports to places like China, which has reduced imports of nonessential goods.
There is an election coming, and Biden has been fighting the impression people have that this could have been handled better. That would be insane, if it was an actual opinion, but it's just the suspicious and reactionary nature of American voters. So Biden is limited in what he can do to help Europe. Europe is going through a tough time, most of which is not our fault (demographic problems and rising costs) so it's not clear to me what we could do that would have a big impact.
Anyway, here's Zeihan:
I think I saw that man filming in Boulder once when I was walking around the mountain trails there. Anyway, there is the concern of the coming elections. It looks like Claudia Sheinbaum from the Morena party is going to be the next six year term president of Mexico. All the polls have her pulling ahead strongly. They look like they will have a clean sweep of the senate and the legislature, the governorships too of the 32 states of Mexico. So Morena will be fully in charge for the next six years.
She is a progressive socialist woman Mexican president. A scientist with degrees and an academic background and was a professor as well. How is she going to get along with a divided US government run by either Trump who does not get along with socialist women in general, or a Biden president that really alienated the Mexican AMLO with his summit of the Latin American nations were he was told the US does very little and does not help any of our economies in general in Central America, the Caribbean and South America. That the US wants the ability to send military troops into Mexico searching for fentanyl and drugs and they want Mexico to cut off a lot of relations with the PRC in trade and other aspects of trade.
It is also come to the attention to the Mexican press that the US government is plotting to outright lie on the Mexican government and paint it as a drug dealing government in collusion with drug dealers. That is an absolute lie. But if they can get away with it they might want to justify another invasion. It is outrageous the amount of smearing, lying and outright propaganda that is done by the US press to justify illegal wars and invasions. No one believes that crap over here.
In the 60 minutes interview with AMLO there was an entire segment that was cut out where AMLO discussed the connection between the Cartels and a previous Mexican president Felipe Calderón. The CIA were caught redhanded selling arms to the cartels. In fact, all the guns they use and military grade equipment like infrared, helicopters, and even heavy equipment is all from US based Arms dealers in the DC area. The CIA coordinates with them all the time. It was left out of the report in the US version but not in Mexico. It is politically embarrassing as hell.
People are believing lies about what is going on in other nations. And it is a justification for the US government to invade, and do all kinds of bad press for anyone whom opposes some kind of neoliberal pro wall street economic agenda. They even wrote in the US government (the Pentagon) that raising Mexican minimum wages, pensions, scholarships, beefing up health clinics, and many other measures that the AMLO government has done will cut into the US corporations bottom line profits and that it is a good idea to prepare attacks against them. That they need someone who won't give the Mexican worker any room to fight for better conditions. Who the fuck are these crazy people? Who think they have a right to rule other nations policies?
If they are smart they better cooperate with Mexico about immigration. Because Mexico is having to give visas, feed people, house people, and find them jobs when they are out of their native societies and are on a border and never can get entry into the USA and are either deported or sent back....many foreigners from Central America, the Middle East, Russia, China, etc all arrive in Mexico and often can't make it across into the USA. They wind up in Mexico for years and years and Mexico has to deal with it to the tune of millions of dollars and a lot of paperwork and problems.
The US is not the only one with immigration crisis. I have met tons of Venezuelans here and Cubans, and Guatemalans and Hondurans, and all kinds of people in Mexico. And they are not separated from their children and they are not told they got to leave in four days or something. it is a long drawn out process. I listen to them every time I go to the SER office and have to deal with Immigration here in Mexico.
The Mexicans will not like having to deal with millions of US citizens caught in a civil war fleeing the US.
Mexico has a lot of people 120 million plus, and Canada is not that numerous. Mexico is way larger in population that Canada. It also provides labor to both Canada and the USA. In large quantities. Alienating the Mexican government, and smearing them and lying on them and then wanting them to absorb the costs of all the caravans and not do shit to help the Mexicans deal with the costs of housing millions of refugees is terrible. The US can send people to Canada. But Canada is cold and few people compared to Mexico. It is cheaper to live in Mexico. An American fleeing a civil war is going to stretch their dollar much farther in Mexico than in Canada. And they will wind up in Mexican territory.
It is ridiculous that amount of mess that is going on politically in the US government. Threats of overthrowing people for what??
A civil war over some lousy politicians who are egomaniacs? It is not worth it.