- 14 Apr 2003 16:17
#201237
This whole oil argument is funny... here, have a conspiracy theory:
Yes that war on Iraq is all about oil, but not how everyone seems to think it is... because the USA is going to benefit a ton-o-cash without ever having to take one barrel of oil from Iraq. Intrieged? Read on...
It was not so long ago (last year I beleive) that the great arch nemesis of the Bush family, Saddam Hussein decided that he had had enough of selling oil in Dollars. So Saddam (cunning as he is) did something really, really clever, he stopped selling oil in dollars and started selling it in Euros.
Well so what? cries the gallery...
Most dollars are not held inside the United States, they are held by foreigners, be they currency speculators, drug dealers... or Oil Exporting Countries. This accounts for a huge section of demand for US dollars, and without that huge demand the value of the dollar would fall significantly. Indeed, following Saddam switching to selling oil in Euros the value of the Euro rose and the dollar depreciated meaning the Saddam Hussein made an absolute killing just by watching the exchange rate change. Of course there are other reasons for the recovery of the Euro, but if ALL of OPEC were to switch to trading oil in Euros there would be a crash in demand for the dollar -> therefore a crash in the value of the dollar on the money markets.
Well so what? cries the gallery...
The USA maintains a massive balance of payments defecit. In english that means it imports a lot more than it exports. A huge fall in the value of the dollar would mean that overnight a vast ammount of what the average American consumer wants to buy becomes a lot more expensive. Coupled with the USA already being in economic difficulty, compounded by the economic effects of the WTC attacks, the USA would be pushed into a severe recession. Whilst of course the Eurozone countries would be laughing (France, Germany et al). And remember folks, the UK is not in the Euro-zone, hence Blair has nothing to lose by helping Bush out.
Oh it suddenly all adds up... the USA will save itself from economic disaster by invading Iraq and replacing the government with one that will now sell oil in Dollars. At the same time it sends a terrifying message to the rest of OPEC not to follow Iraq's example and sell oil in Euros, despite Europe being OPECs biggest customer.
Whether you buy that theory or not is up to you, but personally I find it a lot more convincing than "The USA wants to take Iraq's oil".