late wrote:It's not arrogance.
Of course it is. China aren't a second tier military force. They might not spend as much as America on defence, but they spend enough to defeat you in China. You didn't even defeat the Taliban ffs.
So let's make this simpler. Taiwan hasn't been invaded largely because China has had other priorities.
Ohhhh, let's be clear here. Taiwan is one of, if not the top priority for China. If they haven't invaded yet it is because they have a strategy. It isn't just America who would prefer a peaceful transfer of power.
Second, they know they can win without an invasion. They need that if they don't want see the crucial businesses there destroyed. (not by them)
Sure. It maybe possible. But not if their remains talk of independence. Although you have to be naive if you think business or trade is what is preventing China from invading Taiwan right now.
Third, they are still a 3rd rate navy, and air force. They want to use numbers to overwhelm American defenses, but you can expect that to be countered with more ships that serve in a defensive capacity.
Well this is just wrong and frankly wishful thinking. Its navy is numerically greater than yours and it in newer. Their airforce is also significantly greater than your air carrier capacity. And they have air supremacy, logistics and resources without having to cross the largest ocean on the planet. Do you think your Navy can reach Taiwan in stealth? You'll be sunk by this so called second rate airforce before they even reach Asia. Also, there is no surrender for China. Kamikaze. I wonder if the Americans will offer their lives for Taiwan no question. I doubt it.
Fourth, they are in a race to avoid another collapse into warlordism. That will make them cautious. They are also in a race with the things, like water, that could make them collapse.
They seem to be coping now. Why expect things to change in a very short war.
Fifth, there is the effect this would have on their diplomatic efforts, which are already in trouble.
Wake up. China haven't been sleeping. They are already building up their diplomatic relationships with everyone. The US said they are pulling their diplomats out of the Beijing games and nobody has followed suit FYI. China are already the goto nation once your nation has been ostracised by America. So it is America who are losing friends. You may have them with the UK, but you haven't really got many in the EU since Trump, Latin America hate you and apart from Saudi Arabia and Israel, you haven't many friends in the ME either.
China won't compromise on Taiwan. Or they will if it includes unification whether it means losing friends or not. But my instinct is that it will be America, not China who will lose them if they ask nations to help them fight China.