Fasces wrote:I understand you hope it would; I also understand that you don't speak Chinese, don't interact with Chinese nationals, and thus don't have much of an idea of broad Chinese sentiment or a basis for that beyond 'I feel' and are frequently just completely wrong on basic, quantifiable facts about China... to say nothing of as vague a prediction as this one.
Sure, I admit, i don't have much contact with Chinese individuals. But I do know history and understand some things. Putin was seen as a monolith for many but opposition was low key there and discredited by he 90s memes. Didn't stop the protests to get massive support in 2010/2011 after which the insanity really started.
You yourself just prooved Zeithan sort of right. While I do not think that it will happen that fast since China was around 10 years behind Russia in the process in my opinion. While Chinese promise is more repressive compared to the Putins promise at its core. Which will slow things down.
@Rancid
Reshoring is a symptom and not the cause. The main causes are economic development of China that incomes grow and inability of authocratic regime to produce reforms constantly since they don't really have a good feedback loop like democracies have nor the population has any ability to vent its anger like we do (Elections serve important purposes).
It is not like business didn't leave Russia for the same reasons be it economic development or political risk etc.
Notice how autocratic countries stumble heavily in this middle income trap but there are examples that succeed like Korea or Japan or Eastern Europe but they are democratic. The only autocratic success that we have right now is Singapore and even at that, Fasces will argue that it is not autocratic. The rest autocrats just relied on massive oil profits or x profits of some sort.